An analysis of the findings from Yomiuri Shimbun’s survey of the initial phase of the House of Councillors election campaign shows that like in the 2013 election, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) proportional representation ticket is likely to win the most number of votes. The Japanese Communist Party (JCP) will probably increase its number of seats, while the Initiatives from Osaka [Osaka Ishin no Kai] is almost certain to win multiple seats.
Support for the LDP is highest among all parties in all age brackets. It enjoys, in particular, the highest support among younger voters up to 30 years old, including 18- and 19-year olds. About 50% of voters who prioritize such issues as “economic policy and employment” or “foreign policy and security” support the LDP.
However, the LDP has yet to expand support among unaffiliated voters. It is still uncertain if it will be able to win 18 seats, as in the 2013 election.
Komeito has the solid backing of 90% of party supporters. It is likely to win seven seats, on par with the 2013 election.
The Democratic Party (DP) has the support of 30% of respondents who attach importance to the pros and cons of constitutional revision. However, it only has the support of slightly more than 30% of respondents who disapprove of the cabinet, showing it has not been fully able to attract anti-Abe cabinet votes. Although the DP will probably win more seats than the seven seats won by its predecessor, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), in the 2013 election, it will unlikely win 16 seats – the number won by the DPJ in the 2010 election – and will not pose a threat to the LDP.
The JCP is very likely to fare better than the five seats it won in the 2013 election. It will be competing with Komeito to be the no. 3 party in the proportional representation segment. By age bracket, the JCP is supported by people over 50 years old.
Osaka Ishin is doing well mostly in the Kinki region, running neck and neck with the LDP in Osaka-fu. It is notable that the party enjoys a certain level of support both from people who support the cabinet and those who disapprove of the cabinet.
It is possible that the Social Democratic Party and the People’s Life Party may each keep the one seat they currently hold. The possibility for the other parties is uncertain.