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Abe’s Pearl Harbor visit draws attention to his strategy for Lower House dissolution

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s announcement of his plan to visit Pearl Harbor in Hawaii has drawn a great deal of attention to his strategy for the dissolution of the House of Representatives. While there is an opinion that the political schedule after the end of the year is too tight for the dissolution of the Lower House, there is also speculation that domestic and international recognition of Abe’s achievements will serve as a tailwind in the management of the administration, so the Lower House might be dissolved in early 2017.

 

Political schedule and possible timing for Lower House dissolution

 

2016

Dec. 7

Party leaders’ debate

Dec. 14

Extraordinary Diet session adjourns

Dec. 15

Japan-Russia summit (in Nagato City, Yamaguchi Prefecture)

Dec. 16

Japan-Russia summit (in Tokyo)

Late December

Cabinet approval of proposed FY17 budget

Dec. 26

Abe’s visit to Pearl Harbor, Hawaii (until Dec. 27)

2017

Mid-January

Abe visits the Philippines, Vietnam, and other countries.

Jan. 20

Inauguration of President Donald Trump

Some time in January

Regular Diet session convenes

Announcement of issues to be discussed by the Advisory Council on Easing the Burden of the Official Duties and Public Activities of His Majesty the Emperor?

Lower House dissolution?

March

Formal decision on extending the term of the president at the LDP convention

May

Deadline for panel to make recommendations on Lower House election system reform, rezoning

June-July

Government to submit amendments to the Public Office Election Law to the Diet on rezoning

 

                 ↓

 

Enactment of amended Public Office Election Law

 

                 ↓ about a month of public notification period

 

Amended Public Office Election Law takes effect, making Lower House election under new zones possible

Summer

Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly election

After fall

Lower House dissolution?

2018

 

September

Abe’s term as LDP president ends

December

Lower House members’ term of office expires

(Abridged)

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