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ECONOMY

Opinion poll & results of Nikkei survey of 100 major companies

Questions & answers (%)

 

Q: What is your assessment of the current domestic economy?

 

(1) It is expanding

0.7

(2) It is expanding moderately

80.5

(3) It is leveling off

18.1

(4) It is worsening moderately

0.7

(5) It is worsening

0.0

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy is expanding? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Bank of Japan’s monetary easing policies

0.9

(2) Trends in crude oil prices

0.0

(3) Expansionary tone of U.S. economy

38.5

(4) Expansion of spending by foreign tourists visiting Japan

10.3

(5) Economic growth in newly emerging nations (including China)

7.7

(6) Increase in capital investment

67.5

(7) Recovery in personal consumption

30.8

(8) Rise in stock prices

8.5

(9) Rise in wages

6.8

(10) Yen appreciation

0.0

(11) Yen depreciation

1.7

(12) Continuation of low interest rates

0.9

(13) Stabilization of the situation in North Korea

0.0

(14) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

0.0

(15) Extreme heat

0.0

(16) Other answers (O/A)

13.7

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy is leveling off? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Bank of Japan’s monetary easing policies

3.8

(2) Trends in crude oil prices

7.7

(3) Sluggishness in the U.S. economy

0.0

(4) Sluggishness in spending by foreign tourists visiting Japan

7.7

(5) Economic sluggishness in newly emerging nations (including China)

15.4

(6) Sluggishness in capital investment

0.0

(7) Sluggishness in personal consumption

65.4

(8) Decrease in stock prices

0.0

(9) Sluggishness in wages

7.7

(10) Yen appreciation

0.0

(11) Yen depreciation

0.0

(12) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(13) Growing tensions in the situation in North Korea

0.0

(14) Worsening of trade friction

11.5

(15) Extreme heat

3.8

(16) Typhoons, earthquakes, and other natural disasters

42.3

(17) O/A

3.8

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy is worsening? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Bank of Japan’s monetary easing policies

0.0

(2) Trends in crude oil prices

100.0

(3) Sluggishness in the U.S. economy

0.0

(4) Sluggishness in spending by foreign tourists visiting Japan

0.0

(5) Economic sluggishness in newly emerging nations (including China)

100.0

(6) Sluggishness in capital investment

0.0

(7) Sluggishness in personal consumption

0.0

(8) Decrease in stock prices

0.0

(9) Sluggishness in wages

0.0

(10) Yen appreciation

0.0

(11) Yen depreciation

0.0

(12) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(13) Growing tensions in the situation in North Korea

0.0

(14) Worsening of trade friction

0.0

(15) Extreme heat

0.0

(16) Typhoons, earthquakes, and other natural disasters

0.0

(17) O/A

0.0

 

Q: What is your forecast for the domestic economy three months from now (i.e., around December 2018)?

 

(1) It will be expanding

1.4

(2) It will be expanding moderately

70.1

(3) It will be leveling off

25.7

(4) It will be worsening moderately

0.7

(5) It will be worsening

0.0

      No answer (N/A)

2.1

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be expanding? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Recovery in personal consumption

39.8

(2) Increase in capital investment

75.7

(3) Increase in exports

24.3

(4) Rise in stock prices

4.9

(5) Trends in prices of resources and crude oil

1.0

(6) Yen depreciation

1.9

(7) Yen appreciation

0.0

(8) Continuation of low interest rates

1.0

(9) Rise in commodity prices

1.0

(10) Rise in wages

5.8

(11) Economic expansion in the U.S.

21.4

(12) Economic growth in newly emerging nations

3.9

(13) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

0.0

(14) O/A

11.7

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be leveling off? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Delay in recovery in personal consumption

56.8

(2) Sluggishness in capital investment

0.0

(3) Sluggishness in exports

10.8

(4) Decline in stock prices

0.0

(5) Trends in prices of resources and crude oil

18.9

(6) Yen depreciation

0.0

(7) Yen appreciation

0.0

(8) Continuation of low interest rates

0.0

(9) Decrease in commodity prices

0.0

(10) Geopolitical risks, including terrorism

2.7

(11) Economic stagnation in the U.S.

2.7

(12) Economic stagnation in newly emerging nations

2.7

(13) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

16.2

(14) Growing tensions in the situation in North Korea

0.0

(15) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(16) Excessive debt issue in China

0.0

(17) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(18) Worsening of trade friction

40.5

(19) Typhoons, earthquakes, and other natural disasters

10.8

(20) O/A

5.4

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be worsening? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Delay in recovery in personal consumption

0.0

(2) Decrease in capital investment

0.0

(3) Decrease in exports

0.0

(4) Decline in stock prices

0.0

(5) Trends in prices of resources and crude oil

100.0

(6) Yen depreciation

0.0

(7) Yen appreciation

0.0

(8) Continuation of low interest rates

0.0

(9) Decrease in commodity prices

0.0

(10) Geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(11) Worsening of the U.S. economy

0.0

(12) Worsening of newly emerging nations’ economies

100.0

(13) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

0.0

(14) Growing tensions in the situation in North Korea

0.0

(15) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(16) Excessive debt issue in China

0.0

(17) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(18) Worsening of trade friction

0.0

(19) Typhoons, earthquakes, and other natural disasters

0.0

(20) O/A

0.0

 

Q: What is your forecast for the domestic economy six months from now (i.e., around March 2019)?

 

(1) It will be expanding

1.4

(2) It will be expanding moderately

71.5

(3) It will be leveling off

22.9

(4) It will be worsening moderately

2.1

(5) It will be worsening

0.0

      No answer (N/A)

2.1

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be expanding? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Recovery in personal consumption

45.7

(2) Increase in capital investment

73.3

(3) Increase in exports

21.9

(4) Rise in stock prices

4.8

(5) Trends in prices of resources and crude oil

1.0

(6) Yen depreciation

1.0

(7) Yen appreciation

0.0

(8) Continuation of low interest rates

0.0

(9) Rise in commodity prices

1.0

(10) Rise in wages

7.6

(11) Economic expansion in the U.S.

17.1

(12) Economic growth in newly emerging nations

4.8

(13) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

0.0

(14) O/A

10.5

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be leveling off? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Delay in recovery in personal consumption

51.5

(2) Sluggishness in capital investment

12.1

(3) Sluggishness in exports

18.2

(4) Decline in stock prices

0.0

(5) Trends in prices of resources and crude oil

12.1

(6) Yen depreciation

0.0

(7) Yen appreciation

0.0

(8) Continuation of low interest rates

0.0

(9) Decrease in commodity prices

0.0

(10) Geopolitical risks, including terrorism

3.0

(11) Economic stagnation in the U.S.

0.0

(12) Economic stagnation in newly emerging nations

6.1

(13) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

15.2

(14) Growing tensions in the situation in North Korea

3.0

(15) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

3.0

(16) Excessive debt issue in China

0.0

(17) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(18) Worsening of trade friction

39.4

(19) Typhoons, earthquakes, and other natural disasters

0.0

(20) O/A

3.0

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be worsening? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Delay in recovery in personal consumption

33.3

(2) Decrease in capital investment

0.0

(3) Decrease in exports

0.0

(4) Decline in stock prices

0.0

(5) Trends in prices of resources and crude oil

33.3

(6) Yen depreciation

0.0

(7) Yen appreciation

0.0

(8) Continuation of low interest rates

0.0

(9) Decrease in commodity prices

0.0

(10) Geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(11) Worsening of the U.S. economy

0.0

(12) Worsening of newly emerging nations’ economies

33.3

(13) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

33.3

(14) Growing tensions in the situation in North Korea

0.0

(15) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(16) Excessive debt issue in China

0.0

(17) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(18) Worsening of trade friction

66.7

(19) Typhoons, earthquakes, and other natural disasters

0.0

(20) O/A

0.0

 

Q: What is your assessment of the current global economy?

 

(1) It is expanding

2.1

(2) It is expanding moderately

85.4

(3) It is leveling off

11.8

(4) It is worsening moderately

0.7

(5) It is worsening

0.0

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

1.6

(2) Economic expansion in the U.S.

87.3

(3) Improvement in the European economy

27.0

(4) Economic expansion in China

19.8

(5) Economic growth in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

26.2

(6) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Fall in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(8) Decrease in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

1.6

(9) Stability in the world financial system

5.6

(10) Political stability in Europe

0.8

(11) Stability in DPRK situation

0.8

(12) O/A

3.2

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

29.4

(2) Sluggishness in the U.S. economy

5.9

(3) Delay in economic recovery in Europe

5.9

(4) Sluggishness in the Chinese economy

41.2

(5) Economic stagnation in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

5.9

(6) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

17.6

(7) Fall in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(8) Increase in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

5.9

(9) Increasing instability in the world financial system

0.0

(10) Growing political instability in Europe

0.0

(11) Growing tensions over DPRK situation

0.0

(12) Simultaneous drop in stock prices worldwide

0.0

(13) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

11.8

(14) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(15) Worsening of trade friction

58.8

(16) O/A

5.9

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

0.0

(2) Worsening of the U.S. economy

0.0

(3) Economic recession in Europe

100.0

(4) Worsening of the Chinese economy

0.0

(5) Worsening of economies of newly emerging nations (excluding China)

100.0

(6) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Fall in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(8) Increase in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(9) Increasing instability in the world financial system

0.0

(10) Growing political instability in Europe

0.0

(11) Growing tensions in DPRK situation

0.0

(12) Simultaneous drop in stock prices worldwide

0.0

(13) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(14) Growing instability in Middle East situation

0.0

(15) Worsening of trade friction

0.0

(16) O/A

0.0

 

Q: What is your forecast for the global economy six months from now (i.e., around March 2019)?

 

(1) It will be expanding

1.4

(2) It will be expanding moderately

70.1

(3) It will be leveling off

21.5

(4) It will be worsening moderately

4.2

(5) It will be worsening

0.0

      No answer (N/A)

2.8

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

1.0

(2) Expansion of the U.S. economy

86.4

(3) Improvement in the European economy

25.2

(4) Expansion of the Chinese economy

23.3

(5) Economic growth in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

28.2

(6) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Fall in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(8) Decrease in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

1.0

(9) Stability in the world financial system

3.9

(10) Political stability in Europe

1.0

(11) Stability in DPRK situation

1.9

(12) O/A

1.9

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

32.3

(2) Sluggishness in the U.S. economy

9.7

(3) Delay in economic recovery in Europe

3.2

(4) Sluggishness in the Chinese economy

41.9

(5) Economic stagnation in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

9.7

(6) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

9.7

(7) Fall in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(8) Increase in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

3.2

(9) Increasing instability in the world financial system

0.0

(10) Growing political instability in Europe

3.2

(11) Growing tensions in DPRK situation

0.0

(12) Worldwide collapse of stock prices

0.0

(13) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

9.7

(14) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

3.2

(15) Worsening of trade friction

58.1

(16) O/A

0.0

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

16.7

(2) Worsening of the U.S. economy

0.0

(3) Economic recession in Europe

16.7

(4) Worsening of the Chinese economy

66.7

(5) Worsening of economies of newly emerging nations (excluding China)

16.7

(6) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Fall in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(8) Increase in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(9) Increasing instability in the world financial system

16.7

(10) Growing political instability in Europe

16.7

(11) Growing tensions in DPRK situation

0.0

(12) Worldwide collapse of stock prices

0.0

(13) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(14) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(15) Worsening of trade friction

50.0

(16) O/A

0.0

 

Q: The U.S. will have its midterm elections in 2018. Select up to three items that you see as risk factors for the global economy in 2018?

 

(1) Slowdown in the U.S. economy

17.4

(2) Political deadlock in the U.S.

33.3

(3) Slowdown in the Chinese economy

45.1

(4) Growing tensions in DPRK situation

0.7

(5) Slowdown in economies of newly emerging nations (excluding China)

14.6

(6) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

6.3

(7) Political deadlock in Russia

0.0

(8) Growing political instability in Europe

7.6

(9) Increasing instability in the world financial system

7.6

(10) Increase in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

6.9

(11) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

13.9

(12) Fall in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(13) Spread of protectionism

47.2

(14) Spread of populism

2.8

(15) Worldwide collapse of stock prices

2.1

(16) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

6.9

(17) Worsening of trade friction

63.2

(18) O/A

2.1

 

Q: What is your assessment of the current U.S. economy?

 

(1) It is expanding

25.0

(2) It is expanding moderately

70.1

(3) It is leveling off

3.5

(4) It is worsening moderately

0.0

(5) It is worsening

0.0

      N/A

1.4

 

Q: How will your company’s capital investment in the U.S. economy in fiscal 2018 compare with that in fiscal 2017?

 

(1) Fiscal 2018 will exceed fiscal 2017

8.3

(2) Exceed slightly

13.9

(3) No change

38.2

(4) Slightly lower

3.5

(5) Lower

1.4

      N/A

34.7

 

Q: How will your company’s capital investment in the U.S. economy in fiscal 2018 compare with that planned at the beginning of the term?

 

(1) Actual investment will exceed original plan

0.7

(2) Exceed slightly

1.4

(3) No change

62.5

(4) Slightly lower

0.7

(5) Lower

0.0

      N/A

34.7

 

Q: Which one of the following best describes the impact of the Trump administration on your company?

 

(1) Positive

0.7

(2) Generally positive

7.6

(3) Generally negative

64.6

(4) Negative

11.1

     N/A

16.0

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) Of the following list of President Trump’s policies, political stances, and statements, which make you say that the Trump administration has a positive impact. Select up to three.

 

(1) Withdrawal from the TPP

0.0

(2) Initiation of new Japan-U.S. trade talks (FFR)

8.3

(3) Increase of tariffs on imports

0.0

(4) Substantial lowering of corporate tax rate

91.7

(5) Exclusionary policy toward immigrants and refugees

0.0

(6) Relocation of U.S. embassy to Jerusalem

0.0

(7) Financial deregulation

8.3

(8) Expansion of infrastructure investment

33.3

(9) Announcement of withdrawal from Paris Agreement

0.0

(10) Intervention in corporate activities

0.0

(11) Large-scale creation of jobs

25.0

(12) Exchange rate policy

0.0

(13) Confrontation with the media

0.0

(14) Protectionist trade policies

0.0

(15) Hard-line stance on foreign affairs

0.0

(16) Hard-line stance on DPRK

0.0

(17) Review of NAFTA

0.0

(18) Reduction of budget deficit

0.0

(19) Compression of social security expenses

0.0

(20) O/A

8.3

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) or (4) to the foregoing question) Of the following list of President Trump’s policies, political stances, and statements, which make you say that the Trump administration has a negative impact. Select up to three.

 

(1) Withdrawal from the TPP

19.3

(2) Initiation of new Japan-U.S. trade talks (FFR)

15.6

(3) Increase of tariffs on imports

69.7

(4) Substantial lowering of corporate tax rate

0.9

(5) Exclusionary policy toward immigrants and refugees

0.9

(6) Relocation of U.S. embassy to Jerusalem

0.0

(7) Financial deregulation

0.0

(8) Expansion of infrastructure investment

0.0

(9) Announcement of withdrawal from Paris Agreement

2.8

(10) Intervention in corporate activities

7.3

(11) Large-scale creation of jobs

0.0

(12) Exchange rate policy

3.7

(13) Confrontation with the media

0.9

(14) Protectionist trade policies

78.9

(15) Hard-line stance on foreign affairs

19.3

(16) Conciliatory stance on DPRK

0.9

(17) Review of NAFTA

14.7

(18) Worsening of budget deficit

0.9

(19) Compression of social security expenses

1.8

(20) O/A

7.3

 

Q: What are your company’s plans for investing in the United States in the future? 

 

(1) Increase investment

12.5

(2) Slightly increase

18.8

(3) We have no operations in the United States, but we will invest in the future

0.7

(4) Not change

52.1

(5) Slightly decrease

0.0

(6) Decrease

0.0

(7) We have no operations in the United States, and we also have no plans to invest

6.9

      N/A

9.0

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answers (1) to (3) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons for your view [on investing in the U.S.].

 

(1) Major tax cuts under the Trump administration

4.3

(2) Financial deregulation policy under the Trump administration

0.0

(3) Deregulation under the Trump administration

4.3

(4) Development of good ties with the U.S. administration

6.5

(5) Reduction of energy costs

6.5

(6) President Trump’s announcement that he is considering having the U.S. return to the TPP

0.0

(7) Expansion of the U.S. economy

56.5

(8) Increase of tariffs on imports

2.2

(9) Renegotiation of NAFTA

0.0

(10) O/A

54.3

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answers (1) to (3) to the foregoing question) Select up to two fields for priority investment.

 

(1) Manufacturing

45.7

(2) Sales

43.5

(3) Research and development

23.9

(4) New operations

21.7

(5) M&A

19.6

(6) Investment in start-ups

6.5

(7) O/A

6.5

 

[Polling methodology: The Nikkei questionnaire survey of presidents (including chairpersons) of major Japanese companies was taken on Sept. 14–Oct. 4. Responses were received from 144 company executives.]

 

Note: Figures are rounded off.

 

(Abridged)

 

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