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ECONOMY

Opinion poll & results of Nikkei survey of 100 major companies

  • December 21, 2018
  • , NIKKEI Business Daily , pp. 13–14
  • JMH Translation

Questions & answers (%)

 

Q: What is your assessment of the current domestic economy?

 

(1) It is expanding

0.0

(2) It is expanding moderately

63.4

(3) It is leveling off

35.9

(4) It is worsening moderately

0.7

(5) It is worsening

0.0

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy is expanding? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Bank of Japan’s monetary easing policies

0.0

(2) Trends in crude oil prices

0.0

(3) Expansionary tone of U.S. economy

40.2

(4) Increased spending by foreign tourists visiting Japan

10.9

(5) Economic growth in China and other newly emerging nations

3.3

(6) Increase in capital investment

72.8

(7) Recovery in personal consumption

31.5

(8) Rise in stock prices

3.3

(9) Rise in wages

6.5

(10) Yen appreciation

0.0

(11) Yen depreciation

1.1

(12) Continuation of low interest rates

2.2

(13) Stability in the DPRK situation 

0.0

(14) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

0.0

(15) Stability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(16) Other answers (O/A)

12.0

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy is leveling off? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Bank of Japan’s monetary easing policies

1.9

(2) Trends in crude oil prices

3.8

(3) Sluggishness in the U.S. economy

0.0

(4) Sluggishness in spending by foreign tourists visiting Japan

1.9

(5) Economic sluggishness in China and other newly emerging nations

21.2

(6) Sluggishness in capital investment

19.2

(7) Sluggishness in personal consumption

63.5

(8) Decrease in stock prices

1.9

(9) Sluggishness in wages

9.6

(10) Yen appreciation

0.0

(11) Yen depreciation

0.0

(12) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(13) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation 

0.0

(14) Worsening of trade friction

26.9

(15) Instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(16) Typhoons, earthquakes, and other natural disasters

19.2

(17) O/A

5.8

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy is worsening? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Bank of Japan’s monetary easing policies

0.0

(2) Trends in crude oil prices

0.0

(3) Sluggishness in the U.S. economy

0.0

(4) Sluggishness in spending by foreign tourists visiting Japan

0.0

(5) Sluggishness in Chinese and other newly emerging nations’ economies

100.0

(6) Sluggishness in capital investment

0.0

(7) Sluggishness in personal consumption

0.0

(8) Decrease in stock prices

0.0

(9) Sluggishness in wages

0.0

(10) Yen appreciation

0.0

(11) Yen depreciation

0.0

(12) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(13) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.0

(14) Worsening of trade friction

0.0

(15) Instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(16) Typhoons, earthquakes, and other natural disasters

0.0

(17) O/A

100.0

 

Q: What is your forecast for the domestic economy three months from now (i.e., around March 2019)?

 

(1) It will be expanding

0.0

(2) It will be expanding moderately

58.6

(3) It will be leveling off

34.5

(4) It will be worsening moderately

3.4

(5) It will be worsening

0.7

      No answer (N/A)

2.8

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be expanding? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Recovery in personal consumption

44.7

(2) Increase in capital investment

75.3

(3) Increase in exports

15.3

(4) Rise in stock prices

3.5

(5) Trends in prices of resources and crude oil

1.2

(6) Yen depreciation

1.2

(7) Yen appreciation

0.0

(8) Continuation of low interest rates

2.4

(9) Rise in commodity prices

0.0

(10) Rise in wages

5.9

(11) Economic expansion in the U.S.

24.7

(12) Economic growth in newly emerging nations

2.4

(13) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

0.0

(14) O/A

12.9

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be leveling off? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Delay in recovery in personal consumption

68.0

(2) Sluggishness in capital investment

14.0

(3) Sluggishness in exports

8.0

(4) Decline in stock prices

4.0

(5) Trends in prices of resources and crude oil

10.0

(6) Yen depreciation

0.0

(7) Yen appreciation

2.0

(8) Continuation of low interest rates

0.0

(9) Decrease in commodity prices

0.0

(10) Geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(11) Economic stagnation in the U.S.

0.0

(12) Economic stagnation in newly emerging nations

2.0

(13) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

12.0

(14) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.0

(15) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(16) Excessive debt issue in China

0.0

(17) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(18) Worsening of trade friction

42.0

(19) Typhoons, earthquakes, and other natural disasters

0.0

(20) O/A

16.0

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be worsening? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Delay in recovery in personal consumption

0.0

(2) Decrease in capital investment

16.7

(3) Decrease in exports

33.3

(4) Decline in stock prices

0.0

(5) Trends in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(6) Yen depreciation

0.0

(7) Yen appreciation

0.0

(8) Continuation of low interest rates

0.0

(9) Decrease in commodity prices

0.0

(10) Geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(11) Worsening of the U.S. economy

0.0

(12) Worsening of newly emerging nations’ economies

50.0

(13) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

0.0

(14) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.0

(15) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(16) Excessive debt issue in China

0.0

(17) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(18) Worsening of trade friction

66.7

(19) Typhoons, earthquakes, and other natural disasters

0.0

(20) O/A

33.3

 

Q: What is your forecast for the domestic economy six months from now (i.e., around June 2019)?

 

(1) It will be expanding

0.0

(2) It will be expanding moderately

57.9

(3) It will be leveling off

35.9

(4) It will be worsening moderately

4.1

(5) It will be worsening

0.0

      No answer (N/A)

2.1

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be expanding? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Recovery in personal consumption

47.6

(2) Increase in capital investment

73.8

(3) Increase in exports

8.3

(4) Rise in stock prices

2.4

(5) Trends in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(6) Yen depreciation

1.2

(7) Yen appreciation

0.0

(8) Continuation of low interest rates

1.2

(9) Rise in commodity prices

0.0

(10) Rise in wages

3.6

(11) Economic expansion in the U.S.

16.7

(12) Economic growth in newly emerging nations

2.4

(13) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

0.0

(14) O/A

17.9

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be leveling off? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Delay in recovery in personal consumption

53.8

(2) Sluggishness in capital investment

17.3

(3) Sluggishness in exports

17.3

(4) Decline in stock prices

1.9

(5) Trends in prices of resources and crude oil

9.6

(6) Yen depreciation

0.0

(7) Yen appreciation

1.9

(8) Continuation of low interest rates

1.9

(9) Decrease in commodity prices

0.0

(10) Geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(11) Economic stagnation in the U.S.

9.6

(12) Economic stagnation in newly emerging nations

0.0

(13) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

13.5

(14) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.0

(15) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

1.9

(16) Excessive debt issue in China

0.0

(17) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(18) Worsening of trade friction

48.1

(19) Typhoons, earthquakes, and other natural disasters

0.0

(20) O/A

15.4

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be worsening? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Delay in recovery in personal consumption

0.0

(2) Decrease in capital investment

0.0

(3) Decrease in exports

16.7

(4) Decline in stock prices

0.0

(5) Trends in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(6) Yen depreciation

0.0

(7) Yen appreciation

0.0

(8) Continuation of low interest rates

0.0

(9) Decrease in commodity prices

0.0

(10) Geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(11) Worsening of the U.S. economy

0.0

(12) Worsening of newly emerging nations’ economies

50.0

(13) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

16.7

(14) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.0

(15) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(16) Excessive debt issue in China

0.0

(17) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(18) Worsening of trade friction

83.3

(19) Typhoons, earthquakes, and other natural disasters

0.0

(20) O/A

16.7

 

Q: What is your assessment of the current global economy?

 

(1) It is expanding

0.0

(2) It is expanding moderately

70.4

(3) It is leveling off

24.8

(4) It is worsening moderately

3.4

(5) It is worsening

0.7

      N/A

0.7

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

3.9

(2) Economic expansion in the U.S.

91.2

(3) Improvement in the European economy

16.7

(4) Economic expansion in China

17.6

(5) Economic growth in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

28.4

(6) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Fall in prices of resources and crude oil

2.9

(8) Decrease in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

1.0

(9) Stability in the world financial system

4.9

(10) Political stability in Europe

0.0

(11) Stability in the DPRK situation

1.0

(12) O/A

2.0

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

19.4

(2) Sluggishness in the U.S. economy

16.7

(3) Delay in economic recovery in Europe

2.8

(4) Sluggishness in the Chinese economy

69.4

(5) Economic stagnation in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

2.8

(6) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Fall in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(8) Increase in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(9) Increasing instability in the world financial system

0.0

(10) Growing political instability in Europe

13.9

(11) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.0

(12) Simultaneous drop in stock prices worldwide

2.8

(13) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

5.6

(14) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(15) Worsening of trade friction

66.7

(16) O/A

2.8

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

33.3

(2) Worsening of the U.S. economy

16.7

(3) Economic recession in Europe

16.7

(4) Worsening of the Chinese economy

66.7

(5) Worsening of the economies of newly emerging nations (excluding China)

0.0

(6) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Fall in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(8) Increase in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(9) Increasing instability in the world financial system

0.0

(10) Growing political instability in Europe

0.0

(11) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.0

(12) Simultaneous drop in stock prices worldwide

16.7

(13) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(14) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(15) Worsening of trade friction

33.3

(16) O/A

0.0

 

Q: What is your forecast for the global economy six months from now (i.e., around June 2019)?

 

(1) It will be expanding

0.0

(2) It will be expanding moderately

55.2

(3) It will be leveling off

30.3

(4) It will be worsening moderately

11.0

(5) It will be worsening

0.0

      No answer (N/A)

3.5

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

1.3

(2) Expansion of the U.S. economy

90.0

(3) Improvement in the European economy

20.0

(4) Expansion of the Chinese economy

18.8

(5) Economic growth in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

31.3

(6) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Fall in prices of resources and crude oil

3.8

(8) Decrease in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

1.3

(9) Stability in the world financial system

1.3

(10) Political stability in Europe

0.0

(11) Stability in the DPRK situation

1.3

(12) O/A

1.3

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

22.7

(2) Sluggishness in the U.S. economy

18.2

(3) Delay in economic recovery in Europe

4.5

(4) Sluggishness in the Chinese economy

59.1

(5) Economic stagnation in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

4.5

(6) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Fall in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(8) Increase in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

2.3

(9) Increasing instability in the world financial system

2.3

(10) Growing political instability in Europe

11.4

(11) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.0

(12) Worldwide collapse of stock prices

0.0

(13) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

2.3

(14) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(15) Worsening of trade friction

68.2

(16) O/A

4.5

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies

25.0

(2) Worsening of the U.S. economy

6.3

(3) Economic recession in Europe

6.3

(4) Worsening of the Chinese economy

75.0

(5) Worsening of the economies of newly emerging nations (excluding China)

6.3

(6) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Fall in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(8) Increase in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(9) Increasing instability in the world financial system

6.3

(10) Growing political instability in Europe

25.0

(11) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.0

(12) Worldwide collapse of stock prices

0.0

(13) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(14) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(15) Worsening of trade friction

50.0

(16) O/A

0.0

 

Q: Brexit and the European Parliament elections are set to take place in 2019. Select up to three items that you see as risk factors for the global economy in 2019?

 

(1) Slowdown in the U.S. economy

25.5

(2) Political deadlock in the U.S.

14.5

(3) Slowdown in the Chinese economy

60.0

(4) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.7

(5) Slowdown in the economies of newly emerging nations (excluding China)

6.9

(6) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

4.1

(7) Political deadlock in Russia

0.0

(8) Growing political instability in Europe

29.7

(9) Increasing instability in the world financial system

7.6

(10) Increase in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

5.5

(11) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

4.1

(12) Fall in prices of resources and crude oil

1.4

(13) Spread of protectionism

41.4

(14) Spread of populism

2.8

(15) Worldwide collapse of stock prices

3.4

(16) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

4.1

(17) Worsening of trade friction

67.6

(18) O/A

2.8

 

Q: What is your assessment of the current U.S. economy?

 

(1) It is expanding

15.9

(2) It is expanding moderately

70.3

(3) It is leveling off

13.8

(4) It is worsening moderately

0.0

(5) It is worsening

0.0

 

Q: How will your company’s capital investment in the U.S. economy in fiscal 2018 compare with that in fiscal 2017?

 

(1) Fiscal 2018 will exceed fiscal 2017

7.6

(2) Exceed slightly

12.4

(3) No change

42.1

(4) Slightly lower

2.8

(5) Lower

1.4

      N/A

33.7

 

Q: How will your company’s capital investment in the U.S. economy in fiscal 2018 compare with that planned at the beginning of the term?

 

(1) Actual investment will exceed original plan

0.0

(2) Exceed slightly

3.4

(3) No change

60.7

(4) Slightly lower

0.7

(5) Lower

0.7

      N/A

34.5

 

Q: Which one of the following best describes the impact of the Trump administration on your company?

 

(1) Positive

0.0

(2) Generally positive

9.7

(3) Generally negative

64.8

(4) Negative

6.2

     N/A

19.3

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) Of the following list of President Trump’s policies, political stances, and statements, which make you say that the Trump administration has a positive impact. Select up to three.

 

(1) Withdrawal from the TPP

0.0

(2) Initiation of new Japan-U.S. trade talks (FFR)

14.3

(3) Increase of tariffs on imports

0.0

(4) Substantial lowering of corporate tax rate

92.9

(5) Exclusionary policy toward immigrants and refugees

0.0

(6) Relocation of U.S. embassy to Jerusalem

0.0

(7) Financial deregulation

14.3

(8) Expansion of infrastructure investment

42.9

(9) Announcement of withdrawal from Paris Agreement

0.0

(10) Intervention in corporate activities

0.0

(11) Large-scale creation of jobs

42.9

(12) Exchange rate policy

0.0

(13) Confrontation with the media

0.0

(14) Protectionist trade policies

0.0

(15) Hard-line stance on foreign affairs

0.0

(16) Hard-line stance on the DPRK

0.0

(17) Review of NAFTA

0.0

(18) Reduction of budget deficit

0.0

(19) Compression of social security expenses

0.0

(20) O/A

0.0

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) or (4) to the foregoing question) Of the following list of President Trump’s policies, political stances, and statements, which make you say that the Trump administration has a negative impact. Select up to three.

 

(1) Withdrawal from the TPP

23.3

(2) Initiation of new Japan-U.S. trade talks (FFR)

18.4

(3) Increase of tariffs on imports

63.1

(4) Substantial lowering of corporate tax rate

1.0

(5) Exclusionary policy toward immigrants and refugees

3.9

(6) Relocation of U.S. embassy to Jerusalem

0.0

(7) Financial deregulation

0.0

(8) Expansion of infrastructure investment

0.0

(9) Announcement of withdrawal from Paris Agreement

2.9

(10) Intervention in corporate activities

5.8

(11) Large-scale creation of jobs

0.0

(12) Exchange rate policy

3.9

(13) Confrontation with the media

0.0

(14) Protectionist trade policies

79.6

(15) Hard-line stance on foreign affairs

21.4

(16) Conciliatory stance on the DPRK

0.0

(17) Review of NAFTA

9.7

(18) Worsening of budget deficit

1.0

(19) Compression of social security expenses

1.9

(20) O/A

5.8

 

Q: What are your company’s plans for investing in the United States in the future? 

 

(1) Increase investment

11.7

(2) Slightly increase

15.2

(3) We have no operations in the United States, but we will invest in the future

0.7

(4) No change

52.4

(5) Slightly decrease

0.7

(6) Decrease

0.0

(7) We have no operations in the United States, and we also have no plans to invest

7.6

      N/A

11.7

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answers (1) to (3) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons for your view [on investing in the U.S.].

 

(1) Major tax cuts under the Trump administration

2.5

(2) Financial deregulation policy under the Trump administration

0.0

(3) Deregulation under the Trump administration

5.0

(4) Development of good ties with the U.S. administration

5.0

(5) Reduction of energy costs

5.0

(6) President Trump’s announcement that he is considering having the U.S. return to the TPP

0.0

(7) Expansion of the U.S. economy

45.0

(8) Increase of tariffs on imports

0.0

(9) New NAFTA agreement

0.0

(10) O/A

65.0

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answers (1) to (3) to the foregoing question) Select up to two fields for priority investment.

 

(1) Manufacturing

52.5

(2) Sales

50.0

(3) Research and development

27.5

(4) New operations

15.0

(5) M&A

12.5

(6) Investment in start-ups

2.5

(7) O/A

7.5

 

Q: Which one of the following best describes the impact of the various trade wars on your company’s performance?

 

(1) Positive

0.0

(2) Generally positive

0.7

(3) Undecided

24.8

(4) Generally negative

60.0

(5) Negative

9.0

      N/A

5.5

 

Q: Which one of the following best describes the impact of the trade wars on your company’s operations in terms of sales? (multiple responses permitted)

 

(1) My company’s operations were targeted by the U.S. tariff hike or by the retaliatory measures taken in response to it

18.6

(2) My company’s operations will be impacted by the U.S. administration’s trade policy going forward, including trade agreements that the U.S. is mulling reviewing

11.7

(3) My company’s operations are not directly targeted by the tariff hike, but the resulting market fluctuations have or may have a positive impact 

0.0

(4) My company’s operations are not directly targeted by the tariff hike, but the resulting market fluctuations have or may have a negative impact 

31.0

(5) No impact

18.6

(6) Can’t say either way

19.3

(7) O/A

8.3

 

Q: Which one of the following best describes the impact of the trade wars on your company’s operations in terms of procurement? (multiple responses permitted)

 

(1) My company’s operations were targeted by the U.S. tariff hike or by the retaliatory measures taken in response to it

17.9

(2) My company’s operations will be impacted by the U.S. administration’s trade policy going forward, including trade agreements that the U.S. is mulling reviewing

9.0

(3) My company’s operations are not directly targeted by the tariff hike, but the resulting market fluctuations have or may have a positive impact 

0.7

(4) My company’s operations are not directly targeted by the tariff hike, but the resulting market fluctuations have or may have a negative impact 

17.9

(5) No impact

23.4

(6) Can’t say either way

29.0

(7) O/A

6.2

 

Q: (Only for those who gave answers (1) to (4) to either of the two foregoing questions) What kinds of countermeasures have you taken to date? (multiple responses permitted)

 

(1) Changed production location or supplier

16.9

(2) Consulted with customers or suppliers about the covering the tariffs and other cost increases

21.3

(3) Avoided additional tariffs by applying for exemption

12.4

(4) Covered the increase in costs, including the additional tariffs, ourselves 

13.5

(5) Passed along the increase in costs, including the additional tariffs, to customers by raising prices

16.9

(6) Reviewed investment in related operations

1.1

(7) Quit related operations

0.0

(8) O/A

31.5

 

Q: (Only for those who gave answers (1) to (4) to either of the two foregoing questions) What kinds of countermeasures do you plan to take going forward? (multiple responses permitted)

 

(1) Change production location or supplier

27.0

(2) Consult with customers or suppliers about the covering the tariffs and other cost increases

23.6

(3) Avoid additional tariffs by applying for exemption

12.4

(4) Cover the increase in costs, including the additional tariffs, ourselves 

11.2

(5) Pass along the increase in costs, including the additional tariffs, to customers by raising prices

19.1

(6) Review investment in related operations

3.4

(7) Quit related operations

1.1

(8) O/A

34.8

 

Q: The midterm elections in the United States resulted in a “divided Congress.” What is your outlook for the conflict among countries over trade? 

 

(1) The conflict will be resolved soon

0.7

(2) The conflict will continue until around the time of the 2020 U.S. presidential election

64.1

(3) The Trump administration will continue, and the conflict will extend beyond 2021

7.6

(4) The conflict will continue even if the administration changes in 2020 

7.6

      N/A

20.0

 

[Polling methodology: The Nikkei questionnaire survey of presidents (including chairpersons) of major Japanese companies was taken on Nov. 27–Dec. 13. Responses were received from 145 company executives.]

 

Note: Figures are rounded off.

 

(Abridged)

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