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POLITICS

Opinion poll & results from Nihon Yoron Chosakai Poll on the Upper House election and unified local elections

Questions & answers (%)

 

Q1: Which political party do you support?

 

Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP or Jiminto)

48.2

Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ or Rikken Minshuto)

11.5

Democratic Party for the People (DPFP or Kokumin Minshuto)

1.6

Komeito (Komeito)

3.7

Japanese Communist Party (JCP or Kyosanto)

3.1

Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) (Nippon Ishin no Kai)

2.4

Liberal Party (Jiyuto)

0.5

Party of Hope (Kibo no To)

0.4

Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto)

1.2

Other political parties and political groups

0.3

None of the above (NOTA)

23.6

Don’t know (D/K) + No answer (N/A)

3.5

 

Q2: An Upper House election will be held this summer. What do you think will be the focal issue in the election? Select up to two from the following.

 

Abe administration’s economic policies, including Abenomics

22.5

Social security, including pensions and healthcare

41.3

Regional revitalization and measures to address the population decline

7.7

Childrearing support and measures to address the drop in the birthrate

18.8

Raising the consumption tax to 10%

37.2

Constitutional amendment

19.3

Reconstruction from the earthquake and disaster mitigation

7.4

Diplomacy and security

8.3

Political stance of the Abe administration

9.6

Energy issues, including whether or not to restart nuclear power plants

6.7

Issues related to U.S. military bases in Japan, including the relocation of the Futenma Air Station

2.6

Other answers (O/A)

0.6

D/K + N/A

3.7

 

Q3: The ruling parties of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito currently hold a majority in both the Upper and Lower Houses of the Diet. What would you like to see the strength of the ruling and opposition parties in the Upper House become as a result of the election?

 

I would like to see the ruling parties continue to hold a majority

29.6

I would like to see the ruling and opposition parties be evenly matched

53.3

I would like to see the opposition parties gain a majority

10.2

O/A

0.3

D/K + N/A

6.6

 

Q4: To initiate constitutional amendment requires the approval of two-thirds or more of the Diet members in both the Upper and Lower Houses. Currently, “pro-revisionists” – including LDP and Komeito Diet members, independent and minor party Diet members in favor of constitutional amendment under the Abe administration, and Diet members affiliated with other parties that take that same view – hold more than two-thirds of the seats in the two houses. What would you like to see the strength of the ruling and opposition parties in the Upper House become as a result of the Upper House election?

 

I would like to see pro-revisionists continue to hold two-thirds or more of the seats

44.5

I would not like to see pro-revisionists continue to hold a two-thirds majority

47.2

D/K + N/A

8.3

 

Q5: What are your views on the timing for Diet initiation of constitutional amendment?

 

Amendments should be initiated prior to the Upper House election

13.6

Amendments should be initiated quickly after the Upper House election

10.6

Amendments should be initiated so that the Constitution can be amended during Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s term, which lasts until 2021

13.6

No deadline should be set for the initiation of amendments; amendments should be initiated after a broad consensus of the political parties has been formed

42.6

Amendments should not be initiated

11.8

D/K + N/A

7.8

 

Q6: Two combined districts, where two neighboring prefectures are joined to form one district, have been introduced for Upper House elections and the districts of “Tottori and Shimane” and “Tokushima and Kochi” have been created. The combined districts eliminate the “vote-value disparity,” but they result in there being only one Upper House delegate for two prefectures. With the decrease in the population, there is a chance that more areas will be targeted to form combined districts. What do you think should be done with the electoral system for the Upper House?

 

More combined districts should be created to keep the vote-value disparity from increasing

33.5

The Constitution should be amended to eliminate combined districts so that each prefecture can select an Upper House delegate

31.9

To rectify vote-value disparity, the current system should be radically changed without amending the Constitution

26.4

O/A

0.2

D/K + N/A

8.0

 

Q7: Regarding the revision of Article 9 of the Constitution, Prime Minister Abe has proposed that the existence of the Self-Defense Forces be explicitly stated while leaving unchanged paragraph 2, which stipulates that Japan will never again maintain war potential. Moreover, the LDP has made this one of the four amendment items it aims to achieve. Are you in favor of or opposed to amending Article 9 in this way?  

 

In favor

48.9

Opposed

43.7

D/K + N/A

7.4

 

Q8: The Abe administration plans to raise the consumption tax from the current 8% to 10% in October 2019. What are your views on this?

 

The tax rate should be raise as scheduled

39.3

The tax hike should be postponed

24.9

The tax should not be raised

33.4

O/A

0.6

D/K + N/A

1.8

 

Q9: If you were to vote in the Upper House election today, what political party or what political party’s candidate would you vote for?

 

Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (LDP or Jiminto)

42.5

Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ or Rikken Minshuto)

12.4

Democratic Party for the People (DPFP or Kokumin Minshuto)

1.9

Komeito (Komeito)

4.0

Japanese Communist Party (JCP or Kyosanto)

3.4

Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) (Nippon Ishin no Kai)

1.9

Liberal Party (Jiyuto)

0.4

Party of Hope (Kibo no To)

0.5

Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto)

1.5

Other political parties and political groups

0.3

Independents

2.3

There are no political parties or candidates I want to vote for

25.2

Don’t know (D/K) + No answer (N/A)

3.7

 

Q10: Unified local elections will be held in the spring in advance of the Upper House election. In the previous unified local elections in 2015, there were many unopposed elections where the results were decided without voters casting their ballots. This happened because only one person ran in elections to decide the head of a local government or the number of candidates was the same as the number allowed for the constituency in elections to decide assemblypersons. What do you think about unopposed elections?

 

Unopposed elections are problematic

41.6

Generally problematic

39.7

Generally not problematic

7.9

Not problematic

6.8

D/K + N/A

4.0

 

Q11: Designating “regional revitalization” one of its centerpiece policies, the Abe administration has promoted the creation of jobs for young people in regional areas and encouraged people to relocate to regional areas. Although the administration stresses the results of its efforts, some people in regional areas say they do not have a tangible sense of economic recovery. Are you optimistic about the Abe administration’s future efforts for regional revitalization?

 

Yes

6.7

Generally yes

28.3

Generally no

41.4

No

19.7

D/K + N/A

3.9

 

Q12: A movement has arisen to encourage women to enter politics, as witnessed by the passage of the Act on Promotion of Gender Equality in the Political Field in May 2018. The act urges political parties to strive for equal numbers of men and women among their election candidates. Are you optimistic that the number of women assembly persons will increase with the upcoming unified local elections?

 

Yes

73.6

No

22.5

D/K + N/A

3.9

 

Q13: Currently governors and municipal leaders can serve for as many terms in a row as they can win. Some say that the number of terms should be restricted. How many terms do you think it would be appropriate for governors and municipal leaders to serve?

 

Up to 1 term for a total of four years

21.8

Up to 2 terms for a total of eight years

39.7

Up to 3 terms for a total of 12 years

19.0

Up to 4 terms for a total of 16 years

2.8

Up to 5 terms for a total of 20 years

1.0

Up to 6 terms for a total of 24 years

0.4

The number of terms should not be restricted

11.0

O/A

0.3

D/K + N/A

4.0

 

Note: In cases where multiple answers are permitted, the total exceeds 100%.

 

Polling methodology: The survey was implemented on Dec. 8–9, 2018, based on face-to-face interviews conducted by pollsters. A total of 3,000 men and women aged 18 or over were randomly selected nationwide from 250 locations on a stratified two-stage random-sampling basis to create a cross-section of Japan’s more than 100 million voters. Responses were received from 1,561 people, excluding those who could not be interviewed due to relocation or travel. The valid response rate was 52.0%. Composition of respondents was as follows: male, 48.2%; female, 51.8%.

 

Sections of Fukushima Prefecture heavily impacted by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake were excluded from the survey pool.

 

Nihon Yoron Chosakai is a nationwide public opinion polling entity managed by Kyodo News and comprising 38 of its subscribers including the Tokyo Shimbun.

 

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