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OPINION POLLS

49% will “definitely go vote” in Upper House election, NHK public opinion poll

According to the NHK public opinion survey held in advance of this summer’s Upper House election, for which official campaigning will start on July 4, 49% of pollees said they will “definitely go vote” in the election, lower than same time prior to the previous Upper House election held three years ago.

 

NHK conducted a nationwide survey over the three-day period of June 28–30 ahead of the Upper House election on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis targeting men and women aged 18 or over with calls placed to landline and mobile phone numbers. Valid responses were received from 2,049 of the 3,806 people polled. The valid response rate was 54%.

 

According to the survey, 45% of pollees support the Abe cabinet, up by 3 percentage points from the poll conducted a week ago. Those saying they do not support the cabinet decreased by 3 points to 31%.

 

Asked how interested they are in the upcoming Upper House election, 19% said they are “very interested,” 46% said they are “somewhat interested,” 23% said they are “not very interested,” and 6% said they are “not interested at all.”

 

Meanwhile, 49% said they will “definitely go vote,” 30% said they “plan to go vote,” 12% said they “don’t know whether they will go vote,” and 6% said they will “not go vote.”

 

The percentage of respondents who said they will “definitely go vote” was 11 points lower than the figure found in a poll taken at same time prior to the previous Upper House election held three years ago. No direct comparison can be made, however, as the polling methodologies differ.

 

Presented with six policies and asked which they will emphasize most in deciding how to vote, 32% said “social security,” making it the most frequently given response. This was followed by “economic policies” at 20%, “consumption tax” at 19%, “foreign policy and security” at 9%, “constitutional amendment” at 6%, and “nuclear power policy” at 3%.

 

The poll probed views on the outcome desired from the upcoming Upper House election. A total of 21% said “I would like to see the ruling parties increase the number of seats they hold,” while 29% said “I would like to see the opposition parties increase the number of seats they hold.” Some 42% said that they are “unsure.”

 

As for increasing the consumption tax rate to 10% this October, 25% said they are “in favor” of the move while 37% said they are “opposed” and 32% said they are “unsure.”

 

Respondents were split on whether the current Constitution needs to be amended, with 27% saying it does and 30% saying it does not. Some 33% said they are unsure.

 

Asked how much they will take the issue of public pensions into consideration when deciding which party or candidate to vote for, 23% said they will “give it much consideration,” 44% said they will “give it a degree of consideration,” 16% said they will “not give it much consideration,” and 6% they will “give it no consideration at all.” 

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