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Many in western Japan plan to back LDP in proportional representation segment of UH election, Asahi poll

By Sachiko Miwa


According to the Asahi Shimbun poll conducted on July 4–5 to probe views on the upcoming Upper House election, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has strong backing among voters in regional areas, particularly western Japan, while backing for the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) is limited to Kanto and certain other areas.


The poll asked respondents to indicate how they will vote in the proportional representation segment of the Upper House election. Taking the responses of those who indicated a particular party and analyzing them by prefecture, 70% of pollees in Ishikawa Prefecture said that they will vote for the LDP, the highest percentage of any prefecture. Nationwide, an average of 51% of pollees said they will vote for the main ruling party of the LDP. Some 14 prefectures, including Hokuriku, Chugoku, and Kyushu, were at 60% or more. The lowest percentage was in Osaka, where 31% of respondents said they will select the LDP in the proportional representation segment. In Osaka, the most frequently given party was Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) at 37%. This is the only prefecture in the nation where another party was named more frequently than the LDP. Backing for the LDP was also low in Kochi (40%), Okinawa (42%), Tokyo (43%), and Hyogo (44%).


A nationwide average of 18% said they will select the CDPJ in the proportional representation segment of the Upper House race. Some 27% of Tokyoites gave that response, the highest percentage nationwide. Some 25% of those in Niigata and 25% of those in Yamanashi said they will back the CDPJ as did 23% of those in Iwate and 22% of those in Mie and in Saitama, CDPJ leader Yukio Edano’s home base. In a number of prefectures mainly in western Japan, only around 10% of respondents selected the CDPJ, including Tottori and Yamaguchi where only 7% said they will vote for the party in the proportional representation segment of the upcoming election. From 30% to 60% of respondents in each prefecture said they are undecided about how they will vote in the election so the situation may change.


The opinion poll the Asahi Shimbun conducted at the same time as its poll probing views on the upcoming Upper House election revealed disparities by region on central issues. Some 66% of Okinawan respondents said that they are “opposed” to constitutional amendment under the Abe administration (nationwide: 47%). The percentage was also high in Nagano (56%), Niigata (55%), Iwate (54%), and Kochi (54%). A fierce contest or an opposition party win is expected in all of these prefectures, with the exception of Kochi. Iwate Prefecture had the higher percentage of respondents opposed to raising the consumption tax to 10%, at 61% (nationwide: 47%). High percentages were also seen in Okinawa (57%), Hokkaido (56%), Aomori (56%), and Kagawa (56%).


[Polling methodology: The Asahi Shimbun reached 59,270 landline phone numbers of households across the nation with a voter present and received valid responses from 30,010 individuals between July 4 and 5.]


Prefectures with the strongest/weakest voting preference for LDP

(1) Ishikawa


(2) Tottori and Tokushima


(4) Fukui


(5) Yamaguchi




(43) Hyogo


(44) Tokyo


(45) Okinawa


(46) Kochi


(47) Osaka



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