The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito is expected to win at least 63 seats in the House of Councillors election next Sunday, more than half of the 124 seats up for grabs, according to an analysis by The Yomiuri Shimbun.
The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) is expected to win more than 20 seats, while in 1-seat constituencies (32 electoral districts), the LDP is seen as having the upper hand.
The focus of attention in the upcoming election will be whether the ruling parties, along with the Nippon Ishin no Kai and independents who have taken a positive stance on amending the Constitution, can maintain 164 seats, giving the coalition the two-thirds majority of total seats needed to initiate Diet deliberations. In this case, 85 seats need to be won.
The ruling LDP appears to be on track to win a total of 22 single-seat constituencies, including in Fukushima, Yamanashi, Nara and Nagasaki. It also has the advantage in the proportional representation segment. It is expected to win at least one seat in all four constituencies — Ibaraki, Shizuoka, Kyoto and Hiroshima — which have two seats up for grabs, and possibly two of the six seats in the Tokyo constituency.
Komeito, the junior coalition partner of the LDP, is in good shape and could win seats in all seven constituencies where it fielded candidates. The number of proportional representation seats is likely to exceed the party’s target of six.
The CDPJ is ahead in the multiple-seat constituencies of Hokkaido, Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa prefectures. Including the proportional representation segment, their number of seats may increase from the current nine up for grabs to more than 20. The Democratic Party for the People (DPFP), however, is struggling. The party is seen leading races in only three constituencies — Nagano, Shizuoka and Aichi — and will have difficulty keeping hold of its four seats in proportional representation segment.
The analysis was based on the results of Yomiuri Shimbun telephone surveys conducted nationwide from Friday to Sunday and its local coverage of election districts. The survey received 26,826 responses and the response rate was 51 percent for landline phones and 59 percent for mobile.