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ECONOMY

Opinion poll & results of Nikkei survey of 100 major companies

Questions & answers (%)

 

Q: What is your assessment of the current domestic economy?

 

(1) It is expanding

0.0

(2) It is expanding moderately

20.0

(3) It is leveling off

62.7

(4) It is worsening moderately

15.2

(5) It is worsening

2.1

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy is expanding? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Bank of Japan’s monetary easing policies

3.4

(2) Expansionary tone of U.S. economy

13.8

(3) Increased spending by foreign tourists visiting Japan

3.4

(4) Economic growth in China

0.0

(5) Economic growth in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

3.4

(6) Increase in capital investment

72.4

(7) Recovery in personal consumption

51.7

(8) Rise in stock prices

0.0

(9) Rise in wages

6.9

(10) Yen appreciation

0.0

(11) Yen depreciation

0.0

(12) Continued low interest rates

6.9

(13) Increase in public works spending

6.9

(14) Last-minute rise in demand before the consumption tax hike

6.9

(15) Other answers (O/A)

3.4

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy is leveling off? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Bank of Japan’s monetary easing policies

1.1

(2) Sluggishness in the U.S. economy

1.1

(3) Sluggishness in spending by foreign tourists visiting Japan

1.1

(4) Slowdown in Chinese economy

39.6

(5) Sluggishness in the economies of newly emerging nations (excluding China)

1.1

(6) Sluggishness in capital investment

6.6

(7) Sluggishness in personal consumption

30.8

(8) Sluggishness in wages

2.2

(9) Yen appreciation

9.9

(10) Yen depreciation

0.0

(11) U.S.-China trade friction

63.7

(12) Instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(13) Labor shortage

0.0

(14) Decreasing trend in exports

24.2

(15) Deterioration of Japan-ROK ties

3.3

(16) O/A

6.6

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy is worsening? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Bank of Japan’s monetary easing policies

0.0

(2) Sluggishness in the U.S. economy

0.0

(3) Sluggishness in spending by foreign tourists visiting Japan

4.0

(4) Slowdown in Chinese economy

48.0

(5) Sluggishness in the economies of newly emerging nations (excluding China)

4.0

(6) Sluggishness in capital investment

12.0

(7) Sluggishness in personal consumption

20.0

(8) Sluggishness in wages

8.0

(9) Yen appreciation

12.0

(10) Yen depreciation

0.0

(11) U.S.-China trade friction

72.0

(12) Instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(13) Labor shortage

0.0

(14) Decreasing trend in exports

12.0

(15) Deterioration of Japan-ROK ties

0.0

(16) O/A

4.0

 

Q: What is your forecast for the domestic economy three months from now (i.e., around December 2019)?

 

(1) It will be expanding

0.0

(2) It will be expanding moderately

10.3

(3) It will be leveling off

53.2

(4) It will be worsening moderately

30.3

(5) It will be worsening

4.8

      No answer (N/A)

1.4

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be expanding? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Recovery in personal consumption

66.7

(2) Increase in capital investment

73.3

(3) Increase in exports

0.0

(4) Rise in stock prices

0.0

(5) Trends in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(6) Yen depreciation

0.0

(7) Yen appreciation

0.0

(8) Continued low interest rates

6.7

(9) Rise in wages

13.3

(10) Economic expansion in the U.S.

6.7

(11) Economic expansion in China

0.0

(12) Economic growth in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

0.0

(13) Monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB)

0.0

(14) Japan-EU economic partnership agreement (EPA)

0.0

(15) Increase in public works spending

13.3

(16) O/A

20.0

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be leveling off? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Delay in recovery in personal consumption

32.5

(2) Sluggishness in capital investment

6.5

(3) Sluggishness in exports

16.9

(4) Decline in stock prices

0.0

(5) Trends in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(6) Yen depreciation

0.0

(7) Yen appreciation

5.2

(8) Continued low interest rates

1.3

(9) Geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(10) Economic stagnation in the U.S.

1.3

(11) Economic stagnation in China

31.2

(12) Economic stagnation in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

0.0

(13) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

1.3

(14) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(15) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(16) U.S.-China trade friction

53.2

(17) Labor shortage

0.0

(18) Decreasing trend in exports

7.8

(19) Deterioration of Japan-ROK ties

3.9

(20) Impact of the consumption tax hike

20.8

(21) O/A

5.2

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be worsening? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Delay in recovery in personal consumption

21.6

(2) Decrease in capital investment

9.8

(3) Decrease in exports

3.9

(4) Decline in stock prices

2.0

(5) Trends in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(6) Yen depreciation

2.0

(7) Yen appreciation

2.0

(8) Continued low interest rates

0.0

(9) Geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(10) Worsening of the U.S. economy

2.0

(11) Worsening of Chinese  economy

25.5

(12) Worsening of newly emerging nations’ economies (excluding Chinese economy)

0.0

(13) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.0

(14) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(15) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(16) U.S.-China trade friction

54.9

(17) Labor shortage

0.0

(18) Decreasing trend in exports

9.8

(19) Deterioration of Japan-ROK ties

0.0

(20) Impact of the consumption tax hike

58.8

(21) O/A

0.0

 

Q: What is your forecast for the domestic economy six months from now (i.e., around March 2020)?

 

(1) It will be expanding

0.0

(2) It will be expanding moderately

23.4

(3) It will be leveling off

55.2

(4) It will be worsening moderately

17.9

(5) It will be worsening

2.1

      N/A

1.4

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be expanding? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Recovery in personal consumption

70.6

(2) Increase in capital investment

52.9

(3) Increase in exports

5.9

(4) Rise in stock prices

5.9

(5) Trends in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(6) Yen depreciation

2.9

(7) Yen appreciation

0.0

(8) Continued low interest rates

2.9

(9) Rise in wages

5.9

(10) Economic expansion in the U.S.

11.8

(11) Economic growth in China

0.0

(12) Economic growth in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

2.9

(13) Monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB)

0.0

(14) Japan-EU economic partnership agreement (EPA)

0.0

(15) Increase in public works spending

11.8

(16) O/A

8.8

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be leveling off? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Delay in recovery in personal consumption

35.0

(2) Sluggishness in capital investment

12.5

(3) Sluggishness in exports

17.5

(4) Decline in stock prices

0.0

(5) Trends in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(6) Yen depreciation

0.0

(7) Yen appreciation

3.8

(8) Continued low interest rates

1.3

(9) Geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(10) Economic stagnation in the U.S.

6.3

(11) Economic stagnation in China

27.5

(12) Economic stagnation in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

0.0

(13) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.0

(14) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(15) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(16) U.S.-China trade friction

51.3

(17) Labor shortage

0.0

(18) Decreasing trend in exports

11.3

(19) Deterioration of Japan-ROK ties

1.3

(20) Impact of the consumption tax hike

13.8

(21) O/A

3.8

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be worsening? (Select up to two reasons.)

 

(1) Delay in recovery in personal consumption

20.7

(2) Decrease in capital investment

3.4

(3) Decrease in exports

13.8

(4) Decline in stock prices

0.0

(5) Trends in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(6) Yen depreciation

0.0

(7) Yen appreciation

10.3

(8) Continued low interest rates

0.0

(9) Geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(10) Worsening of the U.S. economy

10.3

(11) Worsening of Chinese economy

37.9

(12) Worsening of newly emerging nations’ economies (excluding Chinese economy)

0.0

(13) Growing tensions in the DPRK North Korea

0.0

(14) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(15) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(16) U.S.-China trade friction

72.4

(17) Labor shortage

0.0

(18) Decreasing trend in exports

6.9

(19) Deterioration of Japan-ROK ties

3.4

(20) Impact of the consumption tax hike

24.1

(21) O/A

0.0

 

Q: What is your assessment of the current global economy?

 

(1) It is expanding

0.0

(2) It is expanding moderately

22.1

(3) It is leveling off

35.9

(4) It is worsening moderately

37.9

(5) It is worsening

3.4

      N/A

0.7

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) Economic expansion in the U.S.

84.4

(2) Improvement in the European economy

3.1

(3) Economic expansion in China

9.4

(4) Economic growth in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

31.3

(5) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(6) Drop in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Decrease in geopolitical risk, including terrorism

0.0

(8) Monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB)

9.4

(9) Stability in the world financial system

0.0

(10) Political stability in Europe

0.0

(11) Stability in DPRK situation

0.0

(12) O/A

3.1

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) Slowdown in the U.S. economy

9.6

(2) Slowdown in the European economy

13.5

(3) Slowdown in the Chinese economy

63.5

(4) Economic stagnation in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

5.8

(5) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(6) Drop in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Increase in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(8) Increasing instability in the world financial system

1.9

(9) Growing political instability in Europe

7.7

(10) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.0

(11) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

1.9

(12) U.S.-China trade friction

80.8

(13) Deterioration of Japan-ROK ties

1.9

(14) O/A

0.0

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) Worsening of the U.S. economy

5.0

(2) Worsening of the European economy

26.7

(3) Worsening of the Chinese economy

66.7

(4) Worsening of the economies of newly emerging nations (excluding China)

1.7

(5) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(6) Drop in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Increase in geopolitical risk, including terrorism

1.7

(8) Increasing instability in the world financial system

1.7

(9) Growing political instability in Europe

6.7

(10) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.0

(11) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(12) U.S.-China trade friction

78.3

(13) Deterioration of Japan-ROK ties

0.0

(14) O/A

5.0

 

Q: The deadline for the UK withdrawal from the European Union (Brexit) is coming up at the end of October. Will this have an impact on your business?

 

(1) Yes

7.6

(2) Generally yes

22.1

(3) Generally no

31.0

(4) No

18.6

(5) Can’t say either way

19.3

      N/A

1.4

 

Q: What is your forecast for the global economy six months from now (i.e., around March 2020)?

 

(1) It will be expanding

0.0

(2) It will be expanding moderately

20.7

(3) It will be leveling off

40.6

(4) It will be worsening moderately

34.5

(5) It will be worsening

2.1

      N/A

2.1

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) Expansion of the U.S. economy

80.0

(2) Improvement in the European economy

13.3

(3) Expansion of the Chinese economy

13.3

(4) Economic growth in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

36.7

(5) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(6) Drop in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Decrease in geopolitical risk, including terrorism

0.0

(8) Stability in the world financial system

0.0

(9) Political stability in Europe

0.0

(10) Stability in the DPRK situation

0.0

(11) Monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB)

13.3

(12) O/A

3.3

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) Slowdown in the U.S. economy

10.2

(2) Slowdown in the European economy

5.1

(3) Slowdown in the Chinese economy

64.4

(4) Economic stagnation in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

3.4

(5) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(6) Drop in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Increase in geopolitical risk, including terrorism

0.0

(8) Increasing instability in the world financial system

3.4

(9) Growing political instability in Europe

6.8

(10) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.0

(11) Worldwide collapse of stock prices

0.0

(12) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(13) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

1.7

(14) U.S.-China trade friction

76.3

(15) UK withdrawal from the EU (Brexit)

6.8

(16) Deterioration of Japan-ROK ties

0.0

(17) O/A

3.4

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) Select up to two reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) Worsening of the U.S. economy

11.3

(2) Worsening of the European economy

17.0

(3) Worsening of the Chinese economy

64.2

(4) Worsening of newly emerging nations’ economies (excluding Chinese economy)

3.8

(5) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(6) Drop in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Increase in geopolitical risk, including terrorism

1.9

(8) Increasing instability in the world financial system

1.9

(9) Growing political instability in Europe

7.5

(10) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.0

(11) Worldwide collapse of stock prices

1.9

(12) Rise in U.S. long-term interest rates

0.0

(13) Growing instability in the Middle East situation

0.0

(14) U.S.-China trade friction

75.5

(15) UK withdrawal from the EU (Brexit)

9.4

(16) Deterioration of Japan-ROK ties

0.0

(17) O/A

1.9

 

Q: What is your assessment of the current U.S. economy?

 

(1) It is expanding

2.8

(2) It is expanding moderately

47.5

(3) It is leveling off

38.6

(4) It is worsening moderately

9.7

(5) It is worsening

0.0

      N/A

1.4

 

Q: Which one of the following best describes the impact of the various trade wars on your company’s performance?

 

(1) Positive

0.0

(2) Generally positive

0.0

(3) Neither

19.3

(4) Generally negative

57.3

(5) Negative

20.0

      N/A

3.4

 

Q: What kinds of countermeasures have you taken to date in relation to the U.S.-China trade war? (multiple responses permitted)

 

(1) Changed production location or suppliers

18.6

(2) Consulted with customers or suppliers about how to cover the tariffs and other cost increases

16.6

(3) Avoided additional tariffs by applying for exemption

7.6

(4) Covered the increase in costs, including the additional tariffs, ourselves 

12.4

(5) Passed along the increase in costs, including the additional tariffs, to customers by raising prices

13.8

(6) Reviewed investment in related operations

3.4

(7) Quit related operations

0.0

(8) O/A

43.4

 

Q: What kinds of countermeasures do you plan to take going forward in relation to the U.S.-China trade war? (multiple responses permitted)

 

(1) Change production location or suppliers

24.8

(2) Consult with customers or suppliers about how to cover  the tariffs and other cost increases

20.7

(3) Avoid additional tariffs by applying for exemption

8.3

(4) Cover the increase in costs, including the additional tariffs, ourselves 

8.3

(5) Pass along the increase in costs, including the additional tariffs, to customers by raising prices

12.4

(6) Review investment in related operations

6.2

(7) Quit related operations

0.0

(8) O/A

43.4

 

Q: Is the current state of the Japan-ROK relationship having an impact on your business?

 

(1) Having an impact

4.8

(2) Having some impact

21.4

(3) Not having much of an impact

41.3

(4) Having no impact

15.9

(5) Can’t say either way

13.8

      N/A

2.8

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) How precisely will it impact your business? (multiple responses permitted)

 

(1) Drop in sales of our products and services in South Korea

36.8

(2) Drop in sales in Japan from the decrease in inbound tourists from South Korea

31.6

(3) Decrease in exports to South Korean companies

13.2

(4) Decrease in imports from South Korean companies

5.3

(5) Confusion in global supply chains

13.2

(6) Abandonment of transactions with South Korean companies

2.6

(7) O/A

23.7

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) What kinds of countermeasures have you taken or do you plan to take going forward? (multiple responses permitted)

 

(1) Securing the safety of our employees at our bases in South Korea and our company representatives who travel there

18.4

(2) Downsizing our South Korean bases

2.6

(3) Refraining from taking business trips to South Korea

0.0

(4) Reviewing our supply chain related to South Korean companies

2.6

(5) Securing new business partners to replace South Korean companies

2.6

(6) Suspending transactions with South Korean companies

0.0

(7)  Requesting our affiliated companies and business partners to confirm the status of their transactions with South Korean companies

7.9

(8) Reviewing investments in South Korea

0.0

(9) Limiting imports from South Korean companies

0.0

(10) Refraining from exporting to South Korean companies

0.0

(11) (At present) we are not thinking of taking any countermeasures in particular

47.4

(12) O/A

23.7

 

Q: Do you plan to increase, decrease, or not change your company’s capital investment in fiscal 2019 from the figure planned at the beginning of the term?

 

(1) Increase

1.4

(2) Increase slightly

2.8

(3) Not change

80.6

(4) Decrease slightly

8.3

(5) Decrease

1.4

      N/A

5.5

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) Why will you increase your company’s capital investment? (multiple responses permitted)

 

(1) Expansion of the U.S. economy

16.7

(2) Improvement in the European economy

0.0

(3) Expansion of the Chinese economy

0.0

(4) Economic growth in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

16.7

(5) Expansion of the Japanese economy

0.0

(6) Bank of Japan’s monetary easing policies

0.0

(7) Continued low interest rates

16.7

(8) Increase in public works spending

0.0

(9) Increased spending by foreign tourists visiting Japan

16.7

(10) O/A

50.0

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) Why will you decrease your company’s capital investment? (multiple responses permitted)

 

(1) Uncertainty in the global economy

42.9

(2) Uncertainty in the Japanese economy

35.7

(3) Impact of U.S.-China trade friction

57.1

(4) Impact of Japan-South Korea trade friction

7.1

(5) Stagnation in the Chinese economy

50.0

(6) Stagnation in the European economy

28.6

(7) Brexit

7.1

(8) Yen appreciation

21.4

(9) O/A

42.9

 

Q: Will the 2020 Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games have an impact on your company’s performance?

 

(1) The Games will be a factor leading to an upturn

12.4

(2) The Games will be a factor leading to a slight upturn

27.6

(3) The Games will be a factor leading to a slight downturn

1.4

(4) The Games will be a factor leading to a downturn

1.4

(5) The Games will have no impact

24.8

(6) Can’t say either way

27.6

      N/A

4.8

 

[Polling methodology: The Nikkei questionnaire survey of presidents (including chairpersons) of major Japanese companies was taken on Aug. 28–Sept. 13. Responses were received from 145 company executives.]

 

Note: Figures are rounded off.

 

(Abridged)

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