The Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators (OCCTO) compiled power utilities’ outlooks for energy supply for the next ten years and reported the result to Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Hiroshi Kajiyama on March 31. According to the report, multiple regions in Japan will face power shortages in 2022. Although this will not result in immediate blackouts, the supply will be below the level that would ensure a stable supply of electricity during the summer and winter seasons when demand for electricity rises.
The analysis of the electricity reserve rate, an indicator of stable supply, will be 5.8% in the region stretching from Tokyo to Kyushu in February 2022 and about 7% in the region from Tokyo to Shikoku. A stable electricity supply requires a reserve rate of 8%.
The reduction in thermal power generation is partially responsible for the gap between supply and demand. Uncertainty surrounding the restarting of the operation of nuclear power plants adds to the problem.
According to the OCCTO, the Kyushu area may face a shortage of electricity from FY 2026 onward. (Abridged)