After Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide announced he won’t seek reelection in the Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election, the party began the process of selecting the new leader who will be the “face of the LDP” in the upcoming Lower House election. However, with no end in sight of the COVID-19 crisis in Japan, people’s strong dissatisfaction has not been dissipated by Suga’s resignation.
Kume Akira, who had overseen the LDP’s election strategy as Chief Secretary at the LDP Headquarters, turns a stern eye on the current state of the party with which he has a 40-year association.
Asahi: You had been saying that Suga was checkmated before he announced he won’t run in the party presidential election.
Kume Akira: I appreciate that the Suga administration did its best to fight COVID-19. But in politics we must take responsibility for the results. The Japanese people are outraged and strongly dissatisfied with the administration’s COVID-19 countermeasures, and many LDP legislators were convinced that the party would lose the Lower House election under Suga’s leadership. Suga could neither dissolve the Lower House nor shuffle senior party positions. There was probably no other choice for him but to resign.
I have been saying that if Suga remained prime minister and if the current COVID-19 situation were unchanged, the LDP would lose 30 to 50 seats out of current 276. For the LDP members, the election could have been a “Banzai charge” with a die-rather-than-surrender mentality. It was inevitable that Suga step down.
Asahi: Do you think the LDP presidential election will make voters more hopeful about the LDP?
Kume: The presidential election won’t hurt the LDP. But positive effects of the new party president on the Lower House election will be limited, unless Japanese people can hope more from the LDP regarding COVID-19 countermeasures. Whoever is going to be the next prime minister, the first and foremost task will be to bring COVID-19 under control. The vaccine inoculation must be sped up, the case numbers must be brought down, and hospital beds must be secured. To ask for people’s understanding, the government must first show that the number of cases is declining. It is a conventional strategy to present a positive image to the voters ahead of an election.
Asahi: You mean that the LDP could face severe results in the Lower House election?
Kume: There is no miracle clincher in an election. A media strategy can present good things in a better light but cannot make bad things appear otherwise.
The LDP should prepare for the election with the possibility of losing 30 seats. The opposition parties are formulating a joint front, and the LDP could lose a single-party majority. On the other hand, nothing indicates that the opposition camp is gaining more support, so I don’t expect the LDP to lose control of the government.
Asahi: Although you were the control tower during election campaigns, you said occasionally that you were not an LDP supporter.
Kume: I am a conservative. I am not an unprincipled [LDP] supporter.
Asahi: What do you mean here by “conservative”?
Kume: My understanding is that a conservative belief system is a system that preserves Japanese history and traditional culture, upholds common sense, and protects order. Admittedly, what constitutes common sense may change with time. But I don’t want it to change too much. Even from my conservative viewpoint, the policies of the LDP sometimes seem wrong to me. I must say that its COVID-19 countermeasures and disaster relief have been insufficient. Personally, I didn’t necessarily agree with every single argument of the party.
Asahi: It is probably the same with LDP voters.
Kume: Not all voters who label themselves LDP supporters in opinion polls vote for LDP candidates. Candidates who win an election generally gain 80% of the LDP supporters’ votes. Candidates who lose usually get 60% of the supporter votes.
“LDP supporters” in opinion polls are not solidly and unchangeably in support of the LDP. It is closer to the truth that they expect more from the LDP; they are probably better described as “unaffiliated conservative voters.” Although people talk about the need for a strategy to appeal to independent voters, consolidating and reinforcing support for the LDP has been the essential tenet of LDP election strategies.
Asahi: The LDP lost both the mayorship of Yokohama—the prime minister’s home turf—and Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly race in July.
Kume: Exit polls showed that only 60% of the LDP supporters actually voted for LDP candidates in the metropolitan race, indicating that their trust in the LDP has waned and many of them voted for the Tomin First no Kai. I expect there were quite a few who voted out of desire to punish the LDP. There have been many losses in recent elections, including the Yokohama mayoral race, and I often hear complaints that an LDP endorsement is no longer golden, now even looks pathetic.
Asahi: What is your take on voter mentality?
Kume: In the Showa Era [1926-1989], elections were opportunities for the LDP to talk about Japan’s “hopes and dreams,” which were doubling of income, remodeling the Japanese archipelago, economic reconstruction, etc. However, once Japan achieved a certain level of economic prosperity, it became much harder for the LDP to find the next concept to appeal to the nation. From the Heisei Era [1989–2019] onward, elections became means for the voters to express their dissatisfaction and unhappiness. In other word, the voters no longer expect much from politicians.
Asahi: Isn’t the LDP also responsible for this outcome?
Kume: I agree, as the situation was not brought about by the opposition parties. However, it is also true that in a society where people’s desires are diverse, it is extremely difficult to present “hopes and dreams” that appeal to a large number of people.
Asahi: The single-seat districts were introduced in the Lower House elections in the Heisei Era.
Kume: Under multiple-seat electoral district system, more than one LDP candidate could run in the same district based on their personality and abilities. That allowed the LDP to secure about 60% of votes from all voters. However, with the advent of the single-seat constituency, only one candidate can run in a district, and the recent overall support for the LDP has been about 40% at the highest.
In a single-seat district, the prime minister plays a key role by representing the party. Although, at the moment, the LDP supporters say that they will back individual candidates, they are extremely unhappy about the party as a whole. If these same people decide they can expect more from the [new] prime minister, their support for the party would solidify.
One of drawbacks of the single-seat electoral system is that candidates try their utmost to avoid making enemies; they make many compromises. Legislators these days will never tell a voter “you are wrong.” They say, “Yes, I agree,” to everyone. Over time, these legislators lose sight of their core belief. This truly is populism.
Asahi: Do you mean that the LDP is changing?
Kume: I believe that from the start, the LDP has never been the kind of political party seen in Western Europe, such as Christian Democratic Union and Social Democratic Party in Germany. They were born out of ideologies and beliefs, and legislators who belong to these parties stand by these beliefs. By contrast, the LDP is a group of legislators who wear a Diet member’s badge and claim that they are a political party. I think there is a difference in quality.
Asahi: Do you think that ideologies are playing a bigger role in the LDP these days?
Kume: I see that, in a way, the party is becoming more conservative leaning to counter the ideologies of the opposition parties. But the LDP legislators still don’t want to antagonize anyone back home, so it is not a principled approach.
Asahi: Do you think we should reinstate the multi-seat electoral system?
Kume: It’s not possible to discard the single-seat electoral system now. The incumbents will not destroy the electoral system in which they were elected. Still, I believe the single-seat electoral system has far too many problems. Even if there were more than one fully qualified candidate, only one person could run from the party. There won’t even be a competition. Each single seat has become more like the “private property” of the incumbent.
Asahi: There are so many members who inherit a seat from a family member.
Kume: Even when the party publicly invited candidates, the senior LDP leadership would choose a child of a Diet member if the child showed interest. This keeps political dynasties going. Under the single-seat electoral system, there are usually some winners who are elected only on account of the strength of the party. I think these legislators differ from Showa-era politicians in terms of the reason for their becoming a politician—in their resolve, sense of mission and responsibility.
Asahi: The lack of human resources seems to reflect the deterioration of the LDP. Were you perhaps responsible for “product liability,” as you worked to elect these legislators as the chief campaign strategist?
Kume: But it was the voters who chose those candidates. The legislators are the mirror that reflects the nation. Today our society prefers to prioritize individuals over organizations, triggering a decline in common sense and order. Subordinates don’t listen to their superiors, and the superiors are unable to lead the subordinates with firm actions. The media is partly to blame for creating such a society. I think society overall is deteriorating.
Asahi: What do you think of scandals under the former administration of Abe Shinzo involving Moritomo Gakuen, Kakei Gakuen, and the cherry blossom viewing party?
Kume: I don’t think those scandals drove voters away. But the administration that had stayed in power for a long time might have grown arrogant. Meanwhile, the issue is that Abe didn’t nurture and groom younger politicians as his successor. In a way, that was the cause for the current dismal state of Japanese politics. There is no leader from the next generation who can bear the responsibilities of the government.
After the interview
By Komurata Yoshiyuki
“Without the trust of the people, there can be no government.” This saying applies to the dynamics surrounding Suga’s withdrawal from the stage.
People are being denied treatment at the hospital and dying from COVID-19. The nation needs an explanation and countermeasures implemented by the government. Instead, the administration refused to convene an extraordinary session of the Diet, busying itself with political infighting involving Lower House dissolution and senior appointments. No doubt many people are appalled at the LDP.
It is hard to predict what’s in store ahead of the Lower House election. For example, it is unclear how much effect the change of the “face” of the LDP leader will have on voters’ perception of the party. Still, Kume’s remark that “the LDP should be prepared to suffer losing 30 seats” was persuasive. How will the party receive his words and how will it address issues he presents? Each LDP politician should be ready to answer these questions.
Kume Akira was born in 1954 and worked for an industry paper until 1980, when he was employed at the LDP headquarters. Kume was the head of the LDP Election Strategy Headquarters from 2002 to 2016 and served as the Chief Secretary of the Party Headquarters from 2011 to 2017. He retired in 2019.
