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ECONOMY

Opinion poll & results of Nikkei survey of 100 major companies

  • October 8, 2021
  • , Nikkei Asian Review , p. 14
  • JMH Translation

Questions & answers (%)

 

Q: What is your assessment of the current domestic economy (compared with three months ago)?

 

(1) It is expanding

0.0

(2) It is expanding moderately

29.2

(3) It is leveling off

63.8

(4) It is worsening moderately

6.3

(5) It is worsening

0.7

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy is expanding? (Select up to four reasons.)

 

(1) Bank of Japan’s monetary easing policies

9.5

(2) Economic recovery in U.S.

61.9

(3) Economic recovery in China

40.5

(4) Economic recovery in Europe

23.8

(5) Economic recovery in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

4.8

(6) Increase in capital investment

42.9

(7) Recovery in personal consumption

31.0

(8) Rise in stock prices

14.3

(9) Rise in wages

0.0

(10) Yen appreciation

0.0

(11) Yen depreciation

0.0

(12) Increase in public works spending

2.4

(13) Relaxation of restrictions placed on economic activities due to the COVID-19 pandemic

19.0

(14) Government’s economic measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic

14.3

(15) Rollout of vaccinations against COVID-19

59.5

(16) Other answers (O/A)

11.9

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy is leveling off? (Select up to four reasons.)

 

(1) Bank of Japan’s monetary easing policies

1.1

(2) Economic slowdown in the U.S.

1.1

(3) Economic slowdown in China

4.3

(4) Economic slowdown in Europe

1.1

(5) Economic slowdown in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

5.4

(6) Drop in capital investment

5.4

(7) Slowdown in personal consumption

75.0

(8) Drop in stock prices

0.0

(9) Sluggishness in wages

8.7

(10) Yen appreciation

0.0

(11) Yen depreciation

0.0

(12) Decrease in public works spending

0.0

(13) Slowdown in consumption by foreign tourists

21.7

(14) Skyrocketing raw materials prices

18.5

(15) Restrictions on economic activities due to the prolonged state of emergency

82.6

(16) Government’s inadequate economic measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic

16.3

(17) Delay in rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations

10.9

(18) Stagnation in distribution channels

8.7

(19) O/A

23.9

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy is worsening? (Select up to four reasons.)

 

(1) Bank of Japan’s monetary easing policies

0.0

(2) Economic slowdown in the U.S.

0.0

(3) Economic slowdown in China

10.0

(4) Economic slowdown in Europe

0.0

(5) Economic slowdown in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

0.0

(6) Drop in capital investment

0.0

(7) Slowdown in personal consumption

70.0

(8) Drop in stock prices

0.0

(9) Sluggishness in wages

10.0

(10) Yen appreciation

0.0

(11) Yen depreciation

0.0

(12) Decrease in public works spending

0.0

(13) Slowdown in consumption by foreign tourists

20.0

(14) Skyrocketing raw materials prices

10.0

(15) Restrictions on economic activities due to the prolonged state of emergency

70.0

(16) Government’s inadequate economic measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic

20.0

(17) Delay in the rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations

10.0

(18) Stagnation in distribution channels

20.0

(19) O/A

30.0

 

Q: What is your forecast for the domestic economy six months from now (i.e., around March 2022) compared with today?

 

(1) It will be expanding

10.4

(2) It will be expanding moderately

81.3

(3) It will be leveling off

5.6

(4) It will be worsening moderately

0.0

(5) It will be worsening

0.0

      N/A

2.7

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be expanding? (Select up to four reasons.)

 

(1) Bank of Japan’s monetary easing policies

1.5

(2) Economic recovery in U.S.

32.6

(3) Economic recovery in China

14.4

(4) Economic recovery in Europe

5.3

(5) Economic recovery in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

3.0

(6) Increase in capital investment

20.5

(7) Recovery in personal consumption

73.5

(8) Rise in stock prices

3.0

(9) Rise in wages

0.0

(10) Yen appreciation

0.0

(11) Yen depreciation

0.0

(12) Increase in public works spending

1.5

(13) Relaxation of restrictions placed on economic activities due to the COVID-19 pandemic

87.9

(14) Government’s economic measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic

26.5

(15) Rollout of vaccinations against COVID-19

79.5

(16) O/A

7.6

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be leveling off? (Select up to four reasons.)

 

(1) Bank of Japan’s monetary easing policies

0.0

(2) Economic slowdown in the U.S.

0.0

(3) Economic slowdown in China

25.0

(4) Economic slowdown in Europe

0.0

(5) Economic slowdown in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

12.5

(6) Drop in capital investment

0.0

(7) Slowdown in personal consumption

37.5

(8) Drop in stock prices

12.5

(9) Sluggishness in wages

12.5

(10) Yen appreciation

0.0

(11) Yen depreciation

0.0

(12) Decrease in public works spending

0.0

(13) Slowdown in consumption by foreign tourists

25.0

(14) Skyrocketing raw materials prices

37.5

(15) The fourth state of emergency declared and extended due to the spread of COVID-19 due to Delta and other variants

50.0

(16) Government’s inadequate economic measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic

25.0

(17) Delay in the rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations

0.0

(18) Stagnation in distribution channels

25.0

(19) O/A

37.5

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) What are the key reasons why the domestic economy will be worsening? (Select up to four reasons.)

 

(Responses not printed in the newspaper.)

 

Q: What is your assessment of the current global economy (compared with three months ago)?

 

(1) It is expanding

9.0

(2) It is expanding moderately

65.3

(3) It is leveling off

23.6

(4) It is worsening moderately

1.4

(5) It is worsening

0.0

      N/A

0.7

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) Select up to four reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) Economic recovery in U.S.

82.2

(2) Economic recovery in China

50.5

(3) Economic recovery in Europe

29.9

(4) Economic recovery in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

2.8

(5) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.9

(6) Drop in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Decrease in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(8) Monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB)

3.7

(9) Stability of the world financial system

0.9

(10) Political stability in Europe

0.0

(11) Stability in DPRK situation

0.0

(12) Relaxation of restrictions placed on economic activities due to the COVID-19 pandemic

79.4

(13) Economic measures taken by national governments to address the COVID-19 pandemic

33.6

(14) Rollout of vaccinations against COVID-19

75.7

(15) O/A

4.7

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) Select up to four reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) Economic slowdown in the U.S.

11.8

(2) Economic slowdown in China

23.5

(3) Economic slowdown in Europe

2.9

(4) Economic slowdown in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

23.5

(5) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

20.6

(6) Drop in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Increase in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

8.8

(8) Monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB)

2.9

(9) Increasing instability in the world financial system

2.9

(10) Growing political instability in Europe

0.0

(11) U.S.-China trade friction

11.8

(12) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.0

(13) Resurgence of COVID-19 with the rise of the Delta and other variants

76.5

(14) National governments’ inadequate economic measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic

14.7

(15) Inadequate rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations

23.5

(16) Concerns about inflation

5.9

(17) Increased risk of cyberattack

0.0

(18) Stagnation in distribution channels

17.6

(19) O/A

14.7

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) Select up to four reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) Economic slowdown in the U.S.

100.0

(2) Economic slowdown in China

50.0

(3) Economic slowdown in Europe

0.0

(4) Economic slowdown in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

0.0

(5) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(6) Drop in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Increase in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(8) Monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB)

0.0

(9) Increasing instability in the world financial system

0.0

(10) Growing political instability in Europe

0.0

(11) U.S.-China trade friction

50.0

(12) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.0

(13) Resurgence of COVID-19 with the rise of the Delta and other variants

100.0

(14) National governments’ inadequate economic measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic

0.0

(15) Inadequacy of COVID-19 vaccine rollout

0.0

(16) Concerns about inflation

50.0

(17) Increased risk of cyberattack

0.0

(18) Stagnation in distribution channels

50.0

(19) O/A

0.0

 

Q: What is your forecast for the global economy six months from now (i.e., around March 2022)?

 

(1) It will be expanding

11.8

(2) It will be expanding moderately

78.5

(3) It will be leveling off

6.3

(4) It will be worsening moderately

0.0

(5) It will be worsening

0.0

      N/A

3.4

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing question) Select up to four reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) Economic recovery in U.S.

71.5

(2) Economic recovery in China

40.8

(3) Economic recovery in Europe

40.0

(4) Economic recovery in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

11.5

(5) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

0.8

(6) Drop in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Decrease in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(8) Monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB)

5.4

(9) Stability of the world financial system

0.8

(10) Political stability in Europe

0.0

(11) Stability in DPRK situation

0.0

(12) Relaxation of restrictions placed on economic activities due to the COVID-19 pandemic

82.3

(13) Economic measures taken by national governments to address the COVID-19 pandemic

32.3

(14) Rollout of COVID-19 vaccines

69.2

(15) O/A

5.4

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (3) to the foregoing question) Select up to four reasons [for your answer].

 

(1) Economic slowdown in the U.S.

33.3

(2) Economic slowdown in China

33.3

(3) Economic slowdown in Europe

11.1

(4) Economic slowdown in newly emerging nations (excluding China)

33.3

(5) Rise in prices of resources and crude oil

22.2

(6) Drop in prices of resources and crude oil

0.0

(7) Increase in geopolitical risks, including terrorism

0.0

(8) Monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Board (FRB)

0.0

(9) Increasing instability in the world financial system

0.0

(10) Growing political instability in Europe

0.0

(11) U.S.-China trade friction

11.1

(12) Growing tensions in the DPRK situation

0.0

(13) Resurgence of COVID-19 with the rise of the Delta and other variants

88.9

(14) National governments’ inadequate economic measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic

33.3

(15) Inadequacy of COVID-19 vaccine rollout

0.0

(16) Concerns about inflation

11.1

(17) Increased risk of cyberattack

0.0

(18) Stagnation in distribution channels

22.2

(19) O/A

11.1

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (4) or (5) to the foregoing question) Select up to four reasons [for your answer].

 

(Responses not printed in the newspaper.)

 

Q: The administration of COVID-19 vaccinations has progressed in Japan. When do you think the COVID-19 situation will stop having a negative impact on economic activities?

 

(1) October–December quarter of 2021

2.2

(2) January–March quarter of 2022

8.8

(3) April–June quarter of 2022

30.9

(4) July–September quarter of 2022

10.3

(5) October–December quarter of 2022

8.8

(6) 2023

16.9

(7) 2024

0.0

(8) 2025 or thereafter

0.0

(9) Impossible to predict when things will normalize

22.1

 

Q: When do you think the COVID-19 situation will be under control worldwide?

 

(1) October–December quarter of 2021

0.0

(2) January–March quarter of 2022

0.0

(3) April–June quarter of 2022

7.3

(4) July–September quarter of 2022

4.5

(5) October–December quarter of 2022

10.9

(6) 2023

62.7

(7) 2024

6.4

(8) 2025 or thereafter

5.5

(9) The situation will not get under control

2.7

 

The following questions concern supply chains.

 

Q: Is your company in the manufacturing industry?

 

(1) Yes

58.3

(2) No

41.7

 

  • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) to the foregoing question) Has your company’s domestic or overseas production activities and parts procurement been negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic? (multiple responses permitted)

 

(1) Production activities at domestic factories and domestic parts procurement have been negatively impacted

70.2

(2) Production activities at overseas factories and overseas parts procurement have been negatively impacted

71.4

(3) Not impacted

16.7

 

    • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing subquestion) How has your company’s domestic or overseas production activities and parts procurement been impacted? (multiple responses permitted)

 

(1) Decrease or irregularity in production of our company’s products

64.3

(2) Decrease in orders received for our products

22.9

(3) Drop in order prices for our products

0.0

(4) Procurement of parts and materials either delayed or not possible

81.4

(5) Increase in procurement prices for parts and materials

80.0

(6) Delays in research and development

1.4

(7) O/A

1.4

 

    • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing subquestion) What is the cause of the negative impact? Select all that apply.

 

(1) Decrease in production capacity due to COVID-19 countermeasures

44.3

(2) Decreased production by business partners due to COVID-19

70.0

(3) Shortage of semiconductors

67.1

(4) U.S.-China trade friction

1.4

(5) Human rights issues

0.0

(6) Decrease in flights and shortage of containers

70.0

(7) O/A

14.3

 

    • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing subquestion) What countermeasures are you taking? Select all that apply.

 

(1) Increase inventories

60.0

(2) Diversify procurement after reviewing policy of concentrating purchases on certain countries

42.9

(3) Purchase parts from countries/regions where production is stable

25.7

(4) Expand local procurement at sites of production

20.0

(5) Ask business partners to ensure components

54.3

(6) Shift to domestic production and procurement

21.4

(7) O/A

21.4

 

    • Q: (Only for those who gave answer (1) or (2) to the foregoing subquestion) When do you think your company will stop being negatively impacted by COVID-19?

 

(1) October–December quarter of 2021

1.5

(2) January–March quarter of 2022

8.8

(3) April–June quarter of 2022

13.2

(4) July–September quarter of 2022

4.4

(5) October–December quarter of 2022

8.8

(6) 2023 or thereafter

16.2

(7) Don’t know

47.1

 

[Polling methodology: The Nikkei periodic questionnaire survey of presidents (including chairpersons) of major Japanese companies was taken on Sept. 15–30, 2021. Responses were received from 144 company executives.]

 

Note: Figures are rounded off.

 

(Abridged)

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