Tokyo, Dec. 23 (Jiji Press)–The Japanese government Thursday adopted an official projection of 3.2 pct growth in gross domestic product in price-adjusted real terms for fiscal 2022 from next April.
The government revised up its GDP growth estimate from the 2.2 pct forecast in July this year, factoring in a boost from large-scale stimulus measures to cushion the impact of the novel coronavirus pandemic.
The new economic outlook, adopted at an extraordinary cabinet meeting, will be used to calculate the government’s tax revenue estimate in its fiscal 2022 budget proposal.
If the 3.2 pct GDP growth is realized, it will be the steepest rise since the 3.3 pct increase in fiscal 2010.
In fiscal 2022, Japan‘s real GDP is forecast to hit a record high of 556 trillion yen, against the previous high of 554 trillion yen marked in fiscal 2018.
In nominal terms, the government expects GDP growth of 3.6 pct.
For fiscal 2021, the government revised down its real GDP growth projection to 2.6 pct from 3.7 pct, reflecting steep cuts in automobile production due to a surge in new coronavirus cases in summer this year and supply chain disruptions.
The government delayed its target of bringing the country’s GDP back to the level of October-December 2019, before the coronavirus crisis, to January-March 2022 from the end of this month.
The government believes that its new economic stimulus measures with record fiscal spending of 55.7 trillion yen will push up the real GDP by a total of 5.6 pct, including 3.6 pct expected for fiscal 2022.
In fiscal 2022, the government expects personal consumption to grow 4.0 pct following a 2.5 pct rise in fiscal 2021 and corporate capital expenditures to rise 5.1 pct after a 2.5 pct increase.
The average real GDP growth forecast among private-sector economists surveyed by the Japan Center for Economic Research stood at 2.7 pct for fiscal 2021 and 3.0 pct for fiscal 2022.